Work Smarter
Ask for the range, not the number
Single-number estimates are confident fictions. Estimate in ranges, and see which step carries the risk.
Break this project into steps. For each: a best-case, likely, and bad-case estimate, plus what would cause the bad case. Then show the totals and tell me which single step moves the total most.
Why it works
The range forces honesty about uncertainty, and the step-by-step view shows where the whole estimate actually lives — usually in one or two steps.
Watch out
The model's estimates are structured guesses. Feed in your own numbers where you have them; its value is the arithmetic of ranges and the questions, not the raw figures.
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